At Bet247Pro, we’re always looking for ways to innovate and refine our betting strategies. Over the past few months, we’ve been testing two football-focused approaches in “test mode.” Some of our members have been participating using small stakes of £2, and we’re excited to share our progress and insights so far.
*Just for clarity while we track all these games, we don’t place all these bets into Betfair. We only place bets into Betfair when some other checks are performed regarding market efficiency and sufficient liquidity. The objective is to get our strike rate of all our placed bets to this level!
Strategy One: The “Next Goal” Approach
The first strategy focuses on predicting whether another goal will be scored in the game. This involves analysing a combination of data, including:
- Expected Goals (XG): A measure of the quality of chances created.
- Shots on Target and Off Target: Indicators of attacking intent.
- Momentum and Possession Statistics: To identify teams dominating the game.
- Prices Available: To ensure the odds reflect value.
Initially, we included games where the scoreline was 0-0, but after reviewing data from several hundred matches, it became clear that these games were not achieving the necessary strike rate. As a result, we’ve decided to exclude 0-0 scorelines from this strategy moving forward.
Strategy Two: Lay the Dog
The second strategy is called “Lay the Dog” and targets matches where strong home teams go a goal behind before halftime. Using similar data points as the first strategy, we look for signs that the pre-match favourite is showing signs of recovery. If the criteria align, we lay the team leading the game.
Unlike the Next Goal strategy, Lay the Dog identifies fewer opportunities but maintains a similar strike rate of around 72%. To account for this, we’ve allocated 1 unit stakes to the Next Goal strategy and 2 units to Lay the Dog.
Maximum Lay Prices
As these strategies are still in test mode, we strongly advise clients to use only £2 unit stakes until we’ve ironed out some of the issues with the bot and the strategies. Here are the maximum lay prices and liabilities for each strategy:
- Lay the Dog Strategy: We will lay up to a maximum price of 3.5 for £4 (2 units), resulting in a maximum liability of £10 (2.5 units).
- Next Goal Strategy: We will lay up to a maximum price of 3.0 for £2 (1 unit), making the maximum liability on the bet £4 (2 units).
Keeping these limits ensures manageable risks while we refine the approach and address any remaining issues.
Current Strike Rates and Challenges
Both strategies are performing well, with each achieving a strike rate of approximately 72%. However, as with any betting strategy, there are challenges to overcome.
The biggest issue we face is the dreaded “SUSPENDED” message on Betfair markets. Betfair frequently suspends markets, often influenced by the data provided by their scouts. These scouts, employed by bookmakers’ data providers, attend matches and input live data into devices at the stadiums. Their inputs determine whether a market is open or closed, and some scouts can be overly cautious (or, as we say, a little “trigger happy”).
When Betfair suspends a market just as we attempt to place a bet, our system, CBB, is unable to process the instructions. This means we miss out on some games entirely. While this might occasionally save us from a loss, we’re confident it has cost us more by preventing us from betting on games that would have resulted in wins.
Adjusting the model
At this stage, we are constantly refining the behaviour of the model to align better with the CBB platform and to ensure the right bets are placed at the right time. While the data we capture is critical to the development of the automated model, we acknowledge that until we are satisfied with the criteria and have processed enough bets, it serves primarily as a guide. It helps us track whether our adjustments are improving profitability—or inadvertently reducing it.
The last major change to the model was implemented at the beginning of December. Here are the results from the current version:
- The data indicates we are ahead, but still 5-6% below our desired performance levels.
- Some missed bets—either due to Betfair restrictions or other factors—appear to be costing us valuable wins.
- The trend line isn’t yet pointing in the right direction, but with such a small sample size, this is not a significant concern now.
- Our focus remains on the P&L and strike rate at the average odds we’re securing.
Work in Progress
Both strategies are still in test mode, and we’re actively addressing various issues to improve performance. For now, the focus remains on refining the criteria, handling suspensions more effectively, and ensuring these strategies are as profitable as possible.
We’re excited to continue developing these approaches and will keep you updated on their progress. If you’re testing these strategies with us, thank you for your patience and commitment. Together, we’re building something special!