What is Value?
explanation of the term ‘value’ in betting
What Is Value?
Value exists when the odds available are better than the perceived percentage chance of something happening. The key is first of all finding the value and then getting on at the price. For our exchange bets we have enlisted the help of the brilliant Cloud Bet Bot so we can strike when the odds represent value. Before we put a bet up, we first of all check that the odds are in the “ball park” area of where we want to get involved. Then when we place the bet we will still tell the Betting exchange the MAX price we are prepared to Lay the selection at or the MIN price we will Back the selection at
We want to make sure all our subscribers get on when the time is right!
Examples Of Value In Betting
Let’s take a look at a simple coin toss, there is a 50% chance (or even money in betting terms) of it landing on heads or tails. So this is very easy to quantify: imagine if a bookmaker offered you something like 11/10 for heads, you would be foolish not to take it as it represents a value bet.
The Bookmaker at 11/10 is saying there is only a 47.62% chance that the coin lands on heads, you know it is a 50% chance so you are obtaining 2.38% of value from that bet. Doesn’t sound a lot but if you are consistently beating the book then you are well on your way to success.
When you consider the most popular game in casino’s (roulette) has only a 2.7% edge over the players, you can see why the croupiers are encouraged to spin the wheel as quickly and as often as they can. What that edge means is that for every £100 you wager at the roulette table, you can expect to lose £2.70. Incidentally, if you ever go to America and play on a 00 wheel that house edge is increased to 5.28% – ever wonder why there are so many lights and extravagant hotels on the strip.
So if we take that casino model then as a punter/trader we need to consistently find value bets in our favour with the bookmakers or on the exchange, then providing we stake them correctly, mathematically we must also come out ahead.
If the odds are not there, then we have the discipline to walk away and wait for the next value opportunity – there is no long term profit obtained backing heads at 10/11 (1.91) when we want 11/10 (2.1).
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